Broadband Bytes: November 15-21, 2008

Mike just posted a Broadband Bytes, but there’s a few other things that are worth mentioning in the world of telecommunications.

  • Remember how pinched consumers are more likely to drop video service than data service? A recent survey shows that unhappy people watch a lot more television than happy people do. With economic times getting tough, it may be a smart move to come up with innovative low-cost video packages to snag/retain these customers. Comcast is already trying out a $50/mo data/voice combo and is offering free basic cable for a year for anyone who subscribes to either voice or data services.
  • Comcast is looking at sneaking in data rate increases after all. Their plan is to upgrade various tiers of service to higher speeds with accompanying higher rates. If you want to downgrade to a lower-priced package, tough noogies: speeds under 12Mbps will be gone except for a 768Kbps “value” tier. Competing providers should be able to snap up a lot of customers by offering a slower and cheaper tier between the two. T-Mobile is also raising rates on data packages, but with a 10GB monthly cap and terrible ping times, few are likely to use it for primary access.
  • Copper is dead? Multichannel is pretty sure that DSL is DOA and the subscriber numbers back that up as cable dominates. (Ars Technica offers some excellent commentary on the Multichannel article.) AT&T, while still clinging to FTTN with U-Verse, is already using WiMax as a DSL replacement in rural areas and could very well push voice over WiMax. Businesses are also seeing the light (bad pun, I know) and choosing Ethernet and big-pipe services (think OC-3/OC-12+) over T1 and T3. The price of T1 lines is also leading many small businesses to look at business-class DSL and cable options. Some are going so far as to say that copper landlines could be dead by the end of Obama’s first term as customers flock to VoIP and cell phones.
  • Telcos are hurting but cable could stick around for a while as coax offers a good chunk of bandwidth. They do, however, feel the pinch from the massive amount of bandwidth eaten up by video services. Even as SDV and DTA boxes ease some of that up, the demand for higher-quality signals to all of these shiny new HDTV sets will eat up a lot of the gains as cable operators are forced to move from 480p to 720p and 1080p signals. Competing providers will need to move quickly to offer true HD signals with low compression and superior data rates while the cable companies perform system-wide upgrades over the next 18-24 months. There’s something said for being first to market.
  • Speaking of HD, incumbents are still making agressive inroads with their HD channel counts. Comcast and Time Warner announced more HD channels this week and Dish Network is agressively adding OTA HD to many of their markets. HD isn’t the only content being expanded; both Verizon and Dish are adding more international programming as well.
  • Video isn’t just for your TV. Netflix is rolling out HD streaming with coincides with Watch It Now movies on the XBox360. YouTube is also doing a trial of high-quality video. Of course, streaming isn’t everything. Bright House is also pushing customers towards online video, just of the pay variety. They’ve inked a deal with RoadRunner to sell via their online store. All of these things is going to increase demand for greater bandwidth. And speaking of “content” delivery, you can now use your TiVo to order a pizza from Dominoes.
  • Comcast apparently feels bold enough these days to blow off the FCC. FCC Chairman Kevin Martin asked for data on the operator’s policy of moving channels out of analog tiers and into more expensive digital ones, but Comcast was bold enough to give him only partial data even as threats of fines loom.
  • It also appears that DTA boxes could be a sticky subject. CableONE asked the FCC for a waiver for a HD-capable DTA box with integrated security. This could shut out CableCARD (and possibly Tru2way) as well as a number of third-party devices like TiVo DVRs. Manufacturers are already pushing these boxes which could very well kill the Carterphone of video before it gets off the ground. Competitive operators will see the opportunity to be fully interoperable with CableCARD and Tru2way and ensure that customer DVRs will work on their systems.
  • Local programming is in high demand, but there are some chinks in the incumbents’ armor. Since local programming options like high school sports, General Conference and rebroadcasts of local news are so popular, competing operators should mimic what Comcast is doing and look into an old-school public access channel.
  • Online college classes are starting to show serious promise. Minnesota is pushing to get a quarter of college credits completed online by 2015. A collection of Utah colleges and universities headed by USU is pushing OpenCourseWare, entire courses in digital format that are free to reuse and distribute. These kinds of initiatives could drive demand for metro area networks between the universities and students.