CableCARD is DOA

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Last month, Ars Technica wondered aloud why it is that you can't get a CableCARD device very easily. After all, the FCC mandated that cable companies start supporting "digital cable-ready" television sets way back in July. Despite this, both of the major cable box manufacturers don't sell at retail, cable companies haven't trained their staff on CableCARD and digital TV sets with a CableCARD slot are very, very pricey.  The conclusion is that CableCARD's technical limitations mean that cable operators would rather skip it for the Next Big Thing™ to support SDV and 2-way communication right out of the box.

Further confirmation of this comes as TiVo offers up an adapter to allow their CableCARD-ready units to tune in SDV channels, something that they haven't been able to do. Given that most cable providers will be moving to some form of SDV to conserve bandwidth and offer up nearly limitless programming, it seems that CableCARD is a technology headed for the dustbin before it even becomes available.

My personal advice would be to not get too heavily invested in CableCARD unless you get a unit that it specifically upgradeable to support SDV. Even then, it might be worth it to play a game of "wait and see" until the next technology, DCAS, becomes widely available.

Google Plans a 700MHz Bid

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Though it was more-or-less settled in speculation, Google has committed itself to spending at least $4.6B on a chunk of the valuable "C block" going up for auction this Janurary. Some prime motivators include a change in wholesaling rules by the FCC and Verizon dropping their lawsuit to halt open access (even though the CTIA is continuing that fight and AT&T is still being a crybaby about it). Analysts think Google might team up with an existing wireless partner for the bid, though this seems to run counter to their intention to offer up an open network for use by any provider and any device. Given the steep price tag of this prime piece of wireless real estate, it's unlikely that Google will bid for spectrum in the UK anytime soon.

In other 700MHz news, the FCC awarded a license for 10MHz of bandwidth to PSST, the only company to apply for the job of building a nationwide emergency communications network. With the backing of various fire and police organizations, it was pretty much a shoe-in. The network is expected to get all police and fire departments nationwide using compatible equipment, though there's some stiff resistance to buying a lot of expensive new equipment when the time comes.

Wireless Woes: Earthlink, AT&T, Sprint All Drop Plans

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Earthlink finally got over the hangover and decided that municipal WiFi just wasn't working out the way they had planned. The company decided to put it's muni WiFi operations on the chopping block for a cool $40M (provided, of course, that there's an interested buyer). AT&T is also backing off on muni WiFi. After bailing on St. Louis, they've now backed away from a system in Napa CA after the PUC defined unpalatable regulations regarding antennae height.

Sprint's also feeling the wireless pinch. After nixing their high-profile partnership with Clearwire, the company hinted that it might be getting out of the WiMax business altogether. Rumors are afoot that Comcast might either partner with Sprint or buy out the company entirely in order to get into the wireless space, but such expensive talk spooks investors already unimpressed with the company's financial picture.

Life in the Fast Lane: FIOS and UTOPIA Speed Bumps Kick Off Bandwidth War

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Verizon shook the industry with a move to 20Mbps synchronous connections. UTOPIA rocked it further by allowing providers to ramp up to 50Mbps. Now the entire cable industry has gone nuts trying to ramp up speeds in short order during Q4.

Insight Communications and Cox Communications have each decided to jump to 20Mbps downloads, albeit in limited markets and to a limited number of subscribers. Charter is rumored to be working on a 16Mbps/2Mbps tier coming Real Soon Now(TM). Charter is making their jump by using a technology called SDV that works in a fashion similar to AT&T's U-Verse. Instead of sending all television channels down the pipe at a time, it only sends the channels being actively watched. This helps conserve major bandwidth for more channels and faster speeds. Cox, meanwhile, is doing a lot more than just using SDV. They've also added a big slice of bandwidth to their transceivers and are planning to build their own backbone using some of Level 3 Communications' dark fiber.

This doesn't mean that Verizon is standing still. They've found a way to reliably send 100Gbps over a single strand of fiber and are talking about jumping to 200Mbps for their existing FIOS customers. (They're also rumored to be looking at forcing people onto FIOS to be able to get rid of their old copper/DSL infrastructure. Boo.)

In all of this, though, you're not likely to get what you think you're paying for. That clever "up to" phrase means you could experience congestion at any point from your neighborhood node to the exchange points on the cable company's carrier. Also don't forget that allowing you to use anywhere from 20-200Mbps without a cap can get real expensive for your ISP. Make sure you keep a close eye on those contracts to watch for limitations and caps.

Spineless: The Internet Backbone Needs an Overhaul

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Cable companies are testing 100Mbps cable modems, an Aussie PhD claims to have found a way to make DSL ramp up to 250Mbps within 3 years and Verizon is trying out some 400Mbps connections on its FIOS service. Big numbers, but the Internet backbone probably can't handle it. A recent study predicts that by 2010, we'll start to see slowdowns because of inadequate fiber optic capacity unless backbone providers double their planned construction to $137B.

It's not going to get any better either. TV viewers have been ditching the boob tube for online video, consuming it more voraciously than they did its broadcast cousin. The XBox 360 is rumored to be incorporating IPTV features, bringing online video into the living room en masse. Akamai recently opened a portal for HD video content. Even IP laggard Qwest is rumored to be taking a hard look at IPTV and snatching up video franchise agreements. All that video has to have some way to get from point A to point B and the consensus is that a high-fiber diet is the way to do it.

Even scarier is the price of not doing it. Studies have shown that high-speed connections promote job growth and the resultant telecommuting increases worker satisfaction and productivity. Despite this, the US continues to slip in world broadband rankings. It's not that there isn't demand either. Engineering and medical firms need to be able to transfer large files quickly to multiple locations, but the infrastructure to do it economically just isn't there.

There is some light at the end of the fiber optic tunnel. Researchers in Japan have found a way to bring fiber optic lines up to terabit-class connections using some improved algorithms and a new kind of laser while BASF is trying to find ways to make the exchange of data from optical to electrical transmission much more efficient using crystals. There's also talk of using the Universal Service Fund (USF) to start encouraging better broadband deployments (though given how mismanaged the USF has been, this may or may not work so well). Think tanks and consumer groups are also calling for a different kind of regulation that lowers the high cost of market entry (a prime factor in preserving our current duopoly) and keeps the incumbents accountable.

At the end of the day, it's going to take a lot more than the status quo to make sure the Internet doesn't collapse on itself. 

Finances and Cherry-Picking: A Response for Rep. Steve Urquhart

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Before I left town for a jaunt to DC, Venice and Florence, I had a few questions posed to me by Rep. Steve Urquhart of St. George on my summary of the November 7 subcommittee hearing. It seems he has some concerns over the financial viability of the project and some perceived cherry-picking activities in private subdivisions and non-pledging cities. Simply trying to fully respond in the comments would not fully answer the questions posed and I think it's important that both get the time and attention they deserve. Here are the questions he posed:

(1) Can UTOPIA make it financially or will taxpayer money be used to bail it out? (Its best-possible cost/subscriber rate is north of $5,000. Companies don’t live to tell what happens in that territory; bankruptcy courts tell the story for them).

(2) Has UTOPIA departed from its very reason for being — ubiquitous service? (Yes. It originally declared that it existed to serve areas that cherry pickers wouldn’t. Now, though — as you note — it is doing the exact same thing as Qwest (cherry picking)).

For starters, I really appreciate that Rep. Urquhart participates so readily in open discussions. It helps move the political process forward and puts a human face on legislators who are often reduced to a handful of quotes in the major papers. Without that, we sometimes have a tendency to read too far between the lines and create caricatures of the people we should be working with instead of against.

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It's Official: No More Net Taxes for Seven Years

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It passed the House. It passed the Senate. And on October 31, President Bush channeled his dad's words and said "no new taxes." After getting right down to the deadline, Internet access will remain tax-free for another seven years. Not all is good, however. VoIP services no longer have those tax-free statuses thanks to some finagling by Rep. John Conyers of Michigan. Nine states previously grandfathered in will still be allowed to charge taxes on Internet access.

November 7 Subcommitte Meeting Postscript

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I was rather surprised to see the UTOPIA legislation get tabled at today's meeting. Given that this issue has consumed a significant amount of time at each meeting I've attended and has received a significant amount of public comment, I would think any proposals on the table would have been ready to go. Based on some observations outside of the official committee proceedings, I think Qwest is up to something.

For starters, I noticed that the Qwest rep would re-enter the room shortly after a member of the committee would. I also observed him having a one-on-one conversation with Sen. Stephenson during the lunch break. It's worrisome enough when legislation starts being discussed outside of a public hearing, but that Qwest may have been a major force behind that concerns me even more. Just what are they up to? Will there be sufficient chance for public review, or will this be rushed through via a "boxcar" bill? We stand at a serious risk of seeing some stealth anti-UTOPIA legislation pushed through in the 11th hour.

It's critically important that EVERYONE write, call and e-mail their elected representatives to express their opinion on UTOPIA and get to legislators before Qwest has a chance to. They want a fight? By golly we'll give them one.

Liveblogging the Government Competition and Privatization Subcommittee: November 7, 2007

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It's time for another liveblogging! It's looking like the meeting is likely to start late… again. Maybe we could all chip in to buy the committee members some new watches. 😉

1:04PM It sounds like the tabled items are going to have minimal effect on UTOPIA or other muni broadband projects. Given that, I think I'll skip on out of here. I'll be following up with members of the subcommittee to make sure that the public will have additional chances to review and provide input on whatever new law they will be proposing.

12:55PM Whoa. The UTOPIA legislation is not going to be discussed today. The reason? They're going to "seek consensus" from UTOPIA, Qwest and Comcast before making further amendments on the bill. My main concern there is that this will not be done in public hearings so we might not be able to weigh in again before the general session starts. I'll make sure to keep track of this one and keep everyone updated.

12:53PM The meeting is back in session. Aside from the tabled items, the UTOPIA legislation is all that remains.

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